It’s been a successful year for Bitcoin, with its value increasing over 40% thus far. Factors contributing to this surge include the launch of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in the USA and the halving event which cuts BTC rewards for miners in half. Unprecedented in previous cycles, Bitcoin reached new highs before the halving, leading many to predict a supercycle within the current halving year.
However, Bitcoin has not managed to surpass this pre-halving high in over 123 days. Analysts are pondering whether a rally may be imminent in Q4 2024, since Bitcoin has paled by 13% in the past month and 14% in the last 30 days. Trader Peter Brandt muses that this may be the longest post-halving market cycle, indicating either a delayed high or no new record at all.
Looking back, CoinGlass data shows Bitcoin has always experienced positive Q4 returns in halving years, with gains of 58% in 2016 and 168% in 2020. In eight out of the 11 years from 2013 to 2023, the cryptocurrency has seen average gains of 88% in Q4. Consequently, there is a 73% possibility of Bitcoin rallying in Q4 2024.
Ki Young Ju, CryptoQuant founder, analyzed 2020’s halving and found the bull rally began in Q4, leading to his prediction of an exciting Q4 this year. Current projections show Bitcoin’s price in an accumulation phase, suggesting it could be on the verge of a parabolic uptrend as we near Q4.
However, the 200-day EMA indicates stiff resistance for Bitcoin’s price, especially considering data highlights Bitcoin’s series of higher lows formation over the last seven days, all the while remaining under the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA). Discovery of higher demand-side liquidity may be essential for Bitcoin to bypass its 200-day EMA. Without that, Bitcoin may drop to around $57,500 or even lower, as per analyst Mark Cullen.