Cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin, are predicted to remain robust regardless of the U.S. presidential election’s outcome, suggest Bernstein analysts. This forecast is based primarily on Bitcoin’s long-term growth potential, insensitivity to immediate political changes, and influenced by structural elements including the U.S. fiscal policy, rising debt levels, and the demand for solid assets. According to Bernstein, Bitcoin’s minimal share of the global financial assets creates significant opportunities for future expansion.
Bitcoin’s resilience is fundamentally derived from driving forces such as enlarged U.S. fiscal deficits, record-breaking debts, and monetary expansion, explains the Bernstein team. These conditions promote Bitcoin and similar assets’ attractiveness. Moreover, the widespread adoption of Bitcoin ETFs, which have drawn more than $23 billion in recent flows, contributes to the rising trajectory.
According to Bernstein, Bitcoin’s price objective of $200,000 by 2025 is regardless of the election’s aftermath, but there could be short-term price swings. A win for Trump might see Bitcoin soaring towards new peaks of $80,000-$90,000 by the Presidential inauguration due to his perceived pro-crypto stance. In contrast, if Harris wins, Bitcoin might initially plunge towards $50,000 before a potential rebound.
Bernstein notes that other digital currencies, for instance, Ethereum and Solana, might experience varying effects depending on the regulatory expectations linked to the election result. Nevertheless, Bitcoin mining and stablecoin sectors are expected to hold fort under any administration, thanks to bipartisan backing for stablecoins, which could steer regulatory structures favoring broader cryptocurrency adoption.