Benjamin from the Cryptoverse has taken a look at the Pi Cycle Top indicator by Philip Swift. The Pi Cycle Top indicator identifies the Bitcoin top when two moving averages, the 111 days and the 350 days cross. There have been three crosses of these moving averages in history.
The two moving averages crossed in April 2013, it was considered a cycle top but was not the peak of the market, as it went on a bull rally towards the end of the year after a correction earlier. The moving averages crossed again in November 2013 and that was the peak of the market (1:00)
There was another Pi Cycle Top four years later in December 2017 when the moving averages crossed once again and the market peaked. Historically crossing these moving averages have predicted the local top to within 3 days (1:30).
This metric shows that the two moving averages are in fact converging and are about 2.5% apart at the moment. If we do have a correction in the next few weeks, then they will likely cross (2:00).
This model, however, is yet to prove it is predictive in any way, it was developed after prior bull markets.
This episode premiered on March 21st, 2021.
