As Bitcoin flirts with key breakout levels, Crypto Banter host Ran Neuner believes the crypto market may be on the verge of its most violent move yet. In a data-packed episode, Neuner explains why a breakout above $109,000 could trigger a 50% rally to $166,000 within weeks—if certain macro conditions hold. From post-halving patterns and interest rate politics to ETF inflows and altcoin signals, this could be the move of the cycle.
“The Pattern Is Clear: Sideways, Breakout, 50% Up”
Ran lays out his primary thesis using a cycle-based technical framework. Since the beginning of the bull market, each major Bitcoin rally has followed the same structure:
- Long periods of sideways movement
- A breakout above a key level
- A 50%+ upward surge into price discovery
“We saw it from $31K to $46K, from $46K to $73K, and now we’ve been ranging for 232 days. If history repeats, we could go from $109K to $166K—right in line with the next Fibonacci level.”
The Macroeconomic Wildcard: Powell and the July Rate Cut
The jobs report released ahead of the show beat expectations with 147,000 new non-farm jobs, versus 110,000 expected. Unemployment dropped to 4.1%. That strong data isn’t good news for crypto—because it weakens the case for interest rate cuts.
“If the economy is too strong, Powell can’t justify cutting rates. And that’s the risk here.”
Ran notes that Polymarket data showed a drop in the probability of a 25bps cut from 24% to just 5% post-report. However, hope remains for July 15’s inflation data. If CPI drops below 2.4%, the Fed could still justify a cut.
Powell Under Political Fire: “Too Late Powell” May Be Replaced
Ran highlights an escalating campaign by Trump allies to oust Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. The catalyst? A $2.5 billion Fed renovation and allegedly misleading Senate testimony.
“Trump is pushing for Powell’s resignation. If he replaces him with a pro-cut Chair like Scott Bessent, it could trigger massive rate easing—but also market instability.”
While crypto might benefit from a rate-friendly Fed chair, Ran warns that politicizing the Fed undermines long-term confidence in U.S. financial institutions.
Why $166K Makes Technical Sense
Looking at recent Bitcoin price behavior:
- Multiple past breakouts led to 50% price jumps
- Each breakout followed 200+ days of consolidation
- The current setup mirrors those patterns
- The next Fibonacci extension lies at $166,000
“It’s all math. Chop for 200+ days, break out, go up 50%. That’s what this cycle has been all about.”
Post-Halving Tailwinds: Q3 Historically Explodes
Ran reinforces his case with historical return data from previous post-halving years:
- 2013 Q3: +80%
- 2017 Q3: +40%
- 2021 Q3: +25%
- Average post-halving Q3 return: ~49%
“Q3 and Q4 of a halving year are always the most aggressive. And we’re entering that window right now.”
Altcoin Acceleration Could Follow a Bitcoin Surge
While altcoins have been sluggish, a major Bitcoin rally typically triggers capital rotation into alts. Ran cites new inflows into Solana’s ETF product and Ethereum’s latest golden cross as early signs of altcoin life.
“If Bitcoin rips 30%, that gives people the confidence to reallocate. That’s when altcoins move.”
Ran also references Ben Cowen’s altseason metric (BTC + ETH + USDT + USDC dominance topping at 82) to suggest that smaller-cap alts may be nearing breakout season.
ISM Index: The Altseason Crystal Ball?
A rarely cited metric Ran believes is more predictive than interest rates alone is the ISM (Manufacturing) Index.
- When ISM drops below 50 and then breaks above 50, altcoins historically soar
- This happened in 2013–2014, 2016–2017, and 2020–2021
The most recent reading? 49—just on the cusp.
“If we break above 50 again, this might be the single best altseason signal of the last three cycles.”
Ethereum’s Golden Cross Signals Reversal
Another strong altcoin signal comes from Ethereum’s chart:
- ETH just printed a golden cross (50MA crossing 200MA)
- Previous golden crosses led to 112% and 20% rallies
- ETH is now above its 200-day simple moving average
“This could be ETH’s time to shine—just like it did in late 2020 when BTC led and ETH followed with an 800% move.”
Leverage Is Low, Confidence Is Thin—That’s Bullish
Ran observes that:
- Leverage is at record lows, suggesting minimal risk of overextension
- Volatility is low, making options pricing cheap
- Retail investors are hesitant, which creates ideal conditions for a sharp upside move
“There’s no leverage, no volatility, and no confidence. That’s the setup for a classic bull market squeeze.”
Final Thoughts: “This Could Be the Move of the Cycle”
Ran wraps up the episode with a warning and a prediction:
“If this breakout is real—and we close above resistance—it could trigger a violent move to $166,000, and quickly. But it needs confirmation.”
The final checkmarks:
Strong technical breakout structure
Fibonacci alignment
Q3 seasonality post-halving
Low leverage & volatility
Economic data pivot possibilities
If confirmed, this could be the final leg before Bitcoin sets its sights on $250,000 by year-ending