The crypto market is holding steady, Bitcoin’s flirting with key trendlines, and the Fed says it’s “watching inflation.” But behind the calm, a deadly chart pattern is re-emerging—and it has Gareth Soloway, one of the most respected chart analysts in the space, raising red flags. On the latest episode of Crypto Banter, host Ran Neuner sits down with Soloway for a fast-paced breakdown of what may be the most important chart in markets right now.
“This Chart Absolutely Blew My Mind” — Ran Neuner
Ran wastes no time setting the tone:
“When I saw this chart, I must say—it absolutely blew my mind. I think when you see it, it’ll blow your mind too.”
What follows is a detailed walkthrough of charts spanning the S&P 500, Nasdaq, Bitcoin, gold, and oil—all painting a picture of growing systemic risk. The centerpiece? A near-century-old trendline connecting historic financial crashes—and we’re sitting right on it.
Markets Look Fine—But Warning Signs Are Flashing
Despite geopolitical risks, inflation, and unresolved trade tension, equities remain elevated and Bitcoin sits around $106,000. But according to Gareth:
“Markets are fine until they’re not. And right now, there are cracks forming—especially in the S&P.”
He points to a wedge pattern that the S&P had been following since April. That pattern has now broken down—a major technical warning signal.
Stagflation: The Fed’s “Base Case” Should Worry Everyone
One of the show’s biggest reveals is the Fed’s evolving stance: stagflation is no longer a risk scenario—it’s now their expected baseline. That means:
- Persistent inflation
- Slowing GDP growth
- Rising unemployment
Ran likens it to a doctor admitting they have no treatment left:
“If you get to stagflation, the Fed’s toolkit is useless. You can’t cut rates without stoking inflation, and you can’t hike without killing growth.”
The “War Line” in Oil: $77 Is the Trigger
Gareth and Ran agree: one of the most important charts in the world right now isn’t in crypto—it’s Brent crude oil. Since 2022, oil has traded below a key downward-sloping trendline. Ran calls it the “war line”.
“If oil breaks above $77, it means serious geopolitical escalation. Risk markets—stocks, crypto—will dump.”
With tensions in the Middle East rising and the U.S. CPI already pressured by energy prices, a breakout here could signal both inflationary pressure and military escalation.
The 1929–2000–2024 Trendline: History Repeats?
Here’s where things get chilling.
Gareth pulls up a logarithmic S&P 500 chart going back nearly 100 years. He draws a single trendline connecting:
- The 1929 high (preceding the Great Depression),
- The 2000 dot-com bubble peak, and
- The current S&P price action in late 2024.
“Every time this line has been touched, a historic crash has followed. And guess what? We’re right on it again.”
This isn’t just a coincidence, he argues—it’s a generational warning.
Nasdaq Says the Same: A Perfect Channel Ending in Rejection
Gareth also highlights a channel pattern on the Nasdaq Composite stretching from the 2020 COVID lows through the 2021 peak, 2022 bottom, and the current level.
“Every high and low since COVID has been defined by this channel—and we just hit the top of it again.”
He projects a 30–40% drop could occur if this resistance holds, taking the Nasdaq back to 14,000.
Crypto Correlation: Bitcoin Not Immune
Despite growing narratives of Bitcoin being a hedge, Gareth remains skeptical—at least in the short term.
“Bitcoin is still trading like a risk asset. It rises and falls with the Nasdaq, unless there’s extreme fear about U.S. treasuries or the dollar.”
Key BTC levels to watch:
- Support: ~$104,000
- If broken: Targeting $96,000–$93,000
- Major resistance: The 2017–2021–2024 trendline, which has rejected price action multiple times.
“That line has been touched three times, and each time it’s held. Until it breaks, it’s the top.”
Altcoins: ETH and SOL Holding On—for Now
Ethereum and Solana are also in focus. Gareth remains cautiously bullish on ETH but warns of downside risks:
- ETH support: $2,100
- ETH further support: $1,800
- “I have bids set at $2,100,” he says.
As for Solana:
- Resistance: $180–$190
- Breakdown could revisit $100
- “If it breaks out above resistance, it’s off to the races.”
Gold and Silver: Are They the New Crypto Hedge?
Gold is nearing its all-time highs, and Gareth says central banks are still buying aggressively—especially China.
“If central banks are loading up, and they control the money printers—why wouldn’t I?”
Key gold levels:
- Support: $3,275
- If broken: Potential pullback to $3,140 or even $2,950
Silver, meanwhile, is viewed as a catch-up trade:
“It’s the altcoin of commodities. If you missed the gold run, silver is where people will chase returns.”
His buy level? Around $34.50, calling it the “technical support on a breakout retest.”
July 9 Deadline: Watch Trade Talks Closely
Ran highlights a crucial macro deadline: July 9th marks the end of the U.S. administration’s 90-day tariff pause. Trump claims to be working on deals, but nothing concrete has emerged.
“If we hit July 9 with no deals, expect tariff talk to escalate—and markets to wobble.”
His base case? Trump might extend the deadline again, but uncertainty could still spike volatility.
Final Word: “You Can’t Ignore These Charts”
Ran closes the show with a sobering reminder:
“In crypto, we want the market to always go up. But ignoring these charts would be irresponsible.”
Between the Fed’s stagflation base case, oil’s breakout risk, and historic trendlines flashing red, the message is clear: stay alert, protect your capital, and don’t dismiss technicals—especially now.