Former Goldman Sachs executive and Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal predicts that rising global liquidity will soon propel Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader crypto market into a major rally.
In a post to his 1.1 million followers on X, Pal points to Bitcoin’s historical correlation with the global money supply (M2) as a key indicator that BTC is on the verge of a significant breakout.
“This too shall pass. Crypto is still feeling the tightening in liquidity from the stronger dollar and higher rates in Q4 2024. That is almost done and financial conditions are easing fast, and M2 is headed back to new highs. This is just a regular correction.”
2017 Parallels: Bitcoin’s Price Action Repeating
Pal suggests that Bitcoin is following a 2017-style pattern, when Donald Trump’s first term led to a stronger dollar and higher interest rates, which later reversed—fueling Bitcoin’s explosive growth.
“We had the exact same correction in 2017 caused by the same reaction to Trump policies (higher dollar and higher rates which then reversed).”
Bitcoin’s Long-Term Trend: Logarithmic Growth
Pal also highlights Bitcoin’s movement within a logarithmic regression channel, a long-term technical model that outlines BTC’s potential price range.
“Over time, we just keep climbing the log regression channel. Whether we stay at the main (red) or climb above it by another standard deviation or two remains to be seen as the cycle develops.”
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $82,945.