Bitcoin has slipped below $104,000 for the first time in weeks, prompting renewed bearish sentiment as traders brace for a possible retest of $100,000 and beyond. Analysts now eye a $92,000 CME futures gap, while on-chain data reveals short-term holders are entering capitulation territory with mounting unrealized losses.
Bitcoin Faces Sharp Reversal Below $104,000
Bitcoin’s recent price movement shows increasing weakness after breaking below the $104,000 mark on Tuesday. Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView recorded lows of $103,732 on Bitstamp, signaling over a 2% daily decline.
The downturn began during the Asian trading session as market participants questioned whether the $100,000 support would hold. “$BTC is in absolute free fall right now,” investor Ted Pillows warned on X, suggesting that the next major test lies at six figures.
Analysts Eye $92,000 CME Gap as Next Target
Market observers now turn to the unfilled CME Bitcoin Futures gap near $92,000, positioned just below Bitcoin’s 2025 yearly open. Pillows noted that if BTC loses its current zone, “expect a correction toward $92,000,” where the CME gap provides a strong technical target for traders.
The level aligns with broader market expectations of a healthy correction following Bitcoin’s extended rally earlier in the year. A drop toward $92,000 could potentially fill the gap left by weekend trading, a pattern that historically attracts technical traders looking to close imbalances.
Loss of Key Support Adds to Bearish Pressure
According to trader Daan Crypto Trades, Bitcoin has already lost its primary support level from recent weeks. The price now approaches the bottom of a key range established after the October 10 liquidation event, where BTC made its first higher low post-crash.
Compounding the bearish pressure, Bitcoin whales have reportedly engaged in large-scale sell-offs, while the U.S. dollar continues to strengthen. Combined with cooling momentum in U.S. equity markets, these factors create what Daan described as “not a great recipe for the time being.”
Technical Levels Suggest a Deeper Correction
Derivatives trader Ardi highlighted that Bitcoin’s 50-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) — a critical long-term support level — sits near $102,000. This area coincides with the wick from the Oct. 10 market drop, making it a zone of technical confluence.
If BTC breaks below this level, it could mark the first time in seven months that the 50-week EMA has been breached, a signal that may trigger further selling. Analysts suggest that Bitcoin’s path to recovery could depend on whether buyers can reclaim the $104,000 range in the short term.
Short-Term Holders Enter Capitulation Zone
On-chain data paints a bleak picture for new entrants to the Bitcoin market. Analytics firm Glassnode reported that the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicator for short-term holders has returned to capitulation territory, with readings at -0.058, approaching its lowest since April.
Historically, such conditions mark periods where recent buyers are sitting on significant unrealized losses, often triggering panic selling. However, Glassnode noted that these phases have also represented attractive accumulation opportunities for long-term investors who remain patient during market stress.