Arthur Hayes’ Maelstrom Fund has sounded the alarm on Hyperliquid’s HYPE token, warning that $11.9 billion in team token unlocks over the next two years could create sustained market pressure — a looming test for one of crypto’s hottest derivatives platforms.
$11.9 Billion Unlocks Begin in November
Hyperliquid’s HYPE token is bracing for what Maelstrom researchers call its “first true test.” Starting November 29, a 24-month vesting schedule begins for team tokens, releasing nearly $500 million in supply every month. With buybacks absorbing only around 17% of that amount, roughly $410 million in potential overhang could weigh on prices monthly.
Lukas Ruppert, a researcher at Maelstrom, put it bluntly: “Put yourself in the shoes of a Hyperliquid dev. You’ve worked insanely hard for years. A life-changing sum in tokens is starting to vest; and it’s only one click away.”
Buybacks and Treasuries Not Enough
Even as Hyperliquid benefits from emerging digital asset treasuries like Sonnet — which has pledged $583 million in HYPE alongside $305 million in cash to accumulate more tokens — analysts argue this is “a drop in the bucket” compared with the scale of upcoming unlocks.
Maelstrom’s warning underscores a stark imbalance: capital commitments, while sizable, still trail the flood of supply about to hit the market.
Hayes Cashes Out, But Still Bullish Long-Term
Adding drama to the moment, Arthur Hayes himself reportedly sold all of his HYPE tokens, allegedly to fund the deposit for a Ferrari 849 Testarossa. Yet despite cashing out, Hayes remains bullish on HYPE’s long-term trajectory.
He reiterated his prediction that the token could surge 126-fold by 2028, driven by fiat debasement and explosive growth in stablecoin demand. At a recent conference, Hayes forecast Hyperliquid’s annualized fees could soar from $1.2 billion to $255 billion under the right conditions.
A Growing Battlefield: Aster Enters the Ring
Hyperliquid’s challenge isn’t just internal supply dynamics — competition is heating up. Binance co-founder Changpeng Zhao has backed a rival derivatives DEX called Aster, which recently launched its ASTER token and quickly crossed $2 billion in total value locked.
Maelstrom’s report suggested the timing was no coincidence: “CZ pushing Aster two months before unlocks? Probably not a coincidence. Business is war.”
Price Reaction and Market Sentiment
Despite looming concerns, HYPE has shown resilience. The token recently hit a new all-time high of $59.29, even as news circulated about Hayes’ sell-off and Aster’s rapid rise.
For now, market participants appear torn: some see unlocks as inevitable selling pressure, while others frame them as a stress test that could prove Hyperliquid’s durability as a decentralized trading giant.
What Comes Next
All eyes are on November 29, when the first tranche of unlocks hits the market. Traders, developers, and institutional buyers will be watching closely to see whether Hyperliquid can absorb the supply — or whether pressure forces a sharp correction.
For Hayes and Maelstrom, the verdict is clear: the unlocks are a Sword of Damocles hanging over HYPE’s near-term price. Yet, paradoxically, Hayes still believes the token could deliver generational returns in the longer arc of crypto adoption.