Polymarket, a decentralized predictions platform, reached an impressive $100 million in monthly trading volume this June, largely due to an increase in activity surrounding the forthcoming U.S. presidential election. The platform currently holds over $200 million invested in wagers for the 2024 US presidential winner.
Former President Donald Trump is the popular choice at present, with investors giving him 62% odds of winning the election and wagering over $24.7 million overall on his success or failure. The incumbent president, Joe Biden, is second most popular with around $23.9 million wagered on his re-election. His chances, however, dropped from 34% to 21% following his unsatisfactory showing in the initial presidential debate on June 28. Potential Democratic candidates including Gavin Newsom, Kamala Harris, and Michelle Obama have seen a spike in odds as speculations mount over Biden’s possible withdrawal from the presidential race.
Other election-related betting markets are also attracting significant interest, with potential drop-outs being a prominent topic. This surge in focus follows Biden’s underwhelming debate performance, leading to increased wagers on claims that he might drop out of the race, which now hold a 43% chance, or even that he might leave the race by the 4th of July, holding a 9% probability. Over $10 million in bets are placed on these markets alone. Longshot markets have also been established for figures such as musician Kanye West and crypto critic Elizabeth Warren, though those are currently below a 1% chance.
Polymarket’s key metric, monthly trading volume, was reported at $109.9 million in June – a first time increase past the $100 million threshold. Established only in 2020, Polymarket previously saw its trading volumes rise between $38.9 million and $63 million over the five months until May, a rise of 620% from the preceding months.
The decentralized prediction market platform, which operates on Ethereum sidechain, Polygon, prides a 115% rise in monthly active traders, reaching nearly 30,000 this June. Cryptocurrency prices and other subjects like the UEFA European Football Championship 2024 markets are becoming increasingly popular for trading volumes.
Decentralized prediction markets grant an unfiltered view into the anticipated outcomes of future events. Yuga Cohler, an engineering lead at cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase, says these platforms “are freedom preserving technology that move societies forward.”