The price drops in Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency broader market are coming to an end, but market dynamics are continuously changing, so it’s unclear when the sell-off will complete and a bounce will occur. In his latest video, Michaël discusses the possible scenarios to be on the lookout for.
Bitcoin’s price tends to return to the beginning of the CME gap, which is Friday’s close and is now trading between $32k and $42k. On Sunday, January 23rd, CME futures trading resumes at 4 p.m. (UTC).
Weekend market moves are often jittery as the gap between the CME close is filled back, and it’s worth noting that the stock and crypto markets are coupled.
This is due to the fact that the crypto market is still relatively new and thrives on global market sentiment, resulting in a typical reaction to global market rhetoric. This is also why the crypto market price activity over the weekend may be deceptive because traditional market trade closes on Friday.
The sell-off could be an opportunity to strategize and build positions, which is risky because you could catch a falling knife, but it is safer than buying at higher prices, which could nuke through if there is a dead cat rebound.
However, it is recommended to spread the risk by building small positions now and adding to them later when the market confirms that it is poised to rise to the upside.
On the daily time frame chart, the CME Futures are about $38.1k, but when zoomed in to lower time frames, the prices are $36.7k. Bitcoin could test the gap between $33k and $34.5k before rallying to the upside, although there is another gap above $41k.
On a weekly basis, Bitcoin is currently testing the range bottom, which is the area where a large number of buy orders are being executed. What to expect will be determined by the conditions at these low points.
The RSI on the daily chart is lower than it was during the May correction and similar to the COVID crash in 2020, indicating the severity of the sell-off, with Bitcoin down over 50% from all-time highs reached in November.
In the coming weeks, we are quite likely to have a sideways period, and the levels to keep an eye on and maybe buy at if reclaimed are $40.6k. In the next few days, a bullish divergence pattern could form.
The likelihood of a bounce on lower time frames, particularly on the 4H chart, which is very similar to the 2H chart, is increasing, and a bullish divergence is emerging on the 1H chart, which has yet to be confirmed.
A rejection occurred at $36.1k, which is close to the daily open price. The present price range is at support, and if it holds, a potential higher low will be formed, allowing Bitcoin to test resistance at $36.1k once more, with a probable break propelling Bitcoin to close the CME gap this weekend at $38.5k.
The main takeaway is that Bitcoin is sitting at a support level on high time frames, and the RSI shows that it is oversold and overextended to the downside. Weekend price activity is choppy, and during the weekdays, the market returns to its original price. As panic begins to go away, Michal anticipates the market to turn green in the coming week.