In a recent post on social media site Truth Social, former U.S. President Donald Trump signaled that he believes his unique cryptocurrency, often known as a ‘memecoin’, acts as a gauge of public opinion regarding his leadership. By sharing a Newsmax report, Trump suggested that the performance of his officially titled TRUMP token could be a good indicator of his political momentum, a concept also proposed by a number of cryptocurrency market experts.
Although Trump views his memecoin as a measure of his success, the current state of the market tells a different story. The actual performance of the TRUMP token, if indeed it is reflecting people’s sentiment, is less than positive. Currently trading around $10, the token has seen a significant decrease, dropping 85% since its peak at $73 in January. This trend could continue, with an expected unlock of $520 million worth of tokens in July likely to contribute to the downfall.
Investigations into the blockchain data by Tokenomist reveal that only a little over a quarter (27%) of the complete TRUMP token supply has been unlocked and distributed, with approximately 735 million tokens or 73.52% still to be released. By July 18, 25% of the current circulating supply of TRUMP tokens is due for release, which could put further downward pressure on the token’s value.
Despite Eric Trump’s efforts to lift market confidence by announcing World Liberty Financial’s intention to buy a large amount of memecoin tokens on June 7, the token’s price remained relatively stable. Critics took this market’s indifference as a warning sign. The market reaction to the impending token unlock in July could provide a better understanding of the wider political sentiment towards Trump’s time in office.
Yat Siu, co-founder of Animoca Brands, has previously proposed the use of memecoins as an indicator of public sentiment. He theorized that the initial quick rise of the TRUMP token was due to curiosity-driven excitement, but could, over time, reflect the overall public opinion on Trump’s presidency in the long term.